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Gregor Betz 
Prediction or Prophecy? 
The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences

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Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?
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Table of Content

Recent performance of economic forecasts A historical perspective on economic forecast performance Forecast performance in natural sciences Predictability of complex systems Expectations and reflexiveness Sensitive dependence on initial conditions Experiment and simulation Unrealistic assumption explanations Consequences for traditional decision making

About the author

Dr. Gregor Betz ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter von Prof. Dr. Holm Tetens am Fachbereich Philosophie und Geisteswissenschaften der Freien Universität Berlin.
Language English ● Format PDF ● Pages 280 ● ISBN 9783835090538 ● File size 14.8 MB ● Publisher Deutscher Universitätsverlag ● City Wiesbaden ● Country DE ● Published 2007 ● Downloadable 24 months ● Currency EUR ● ID 2210959 ● Copy protection Social DRM

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