Tamar Kugler & J. Cole Smith 
Decision Modeling and Behavior in Complex and Uncertain Environments 

On February 27 and 28 of 2006, the University of Arizona held a workshop entitled, “Decision Modeling and Behavior in Uncertain and Complex En- ronments, ” sponsored by the Air Force O?ce of Scienti?c Research under a Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (MURI) grant. The purpose of the workshop was to assemble preeminent researchers studying problems at the interface of behavioral and cognitive science, decision analysis, and operations research. This book is a compilation of 14 chapters based on the presentations given during the workshop. These contributions are grouped into four general areas, which describe in some detail the challenges in conducting novel research in this ?eld. Part One is concerned with the need for integrating decision analysis and behavioral models. Robert T. Clemen discusses how the ?elds of behavioral – search and decision analysis have diverged over time, and makes a compelling case to establish new links between the disciplines. He recommends leveraging lessons learned from behavioral studies within prescriptive decision analysis studies and evaluating the practical impact of those prescriptive techniques in helping decision makers achieve their objectives. Jenna L. Marquard and Stephen M. Robinson address eleven common “traps” that face decision model analysts and users. An understanding of these traps leads to an understanding of modeling features that either help or hurt the decision-making process. The authors link theory and practice by examining a set of case studies across a diverse array of model scenarios, and provide a checklist of recommendations for analysts confronted by these eleven traps.

Table of Content

Integrating Decision Analysis and Behavioral Models.- Improving and Measuring the Effectiveness of Decision Analysis: Linking Decision Analysis and Behavioral Decision Research.- Reducing Perceptual and Cognitive Challenges in Making Decisions with Models.- Agricultural Decision Making in the Argentine Pampas: Modeling the Interaction between Uncertain and Complex Environments and Heterogeneous and Complex Decision Makers.- Innovations in Behavioral Model Analysis.- On Optimal Satisficing: How Simple Policies Can Achieve Excellent Results.- There Are Many Models of Transitive Preference: A Tutorial Review and Current Perspective.- Integrating Compensatory and Noncompensatory Decision-Making Strategies in Dynamic Task Environments.- Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma and Battle of Sexes Games: A Simulation Study.- Innovations in Descriptive Behavior Models.- Individual Values and Social Goals in Environmental Decision Making.- Does More Money Buy You More Happiness?.- Cognitive Biases Affect the Acceptance of Tradeoff Studies.- Experimental Studies in Behavioral Research.- Valuation of Vague Prospects with Mixed Outcomes.- Collective Search in Concrete and Abstract Spaces.- Braess Paradox in the Laboratory: Experimental Study of Route Choice in Traffic Networks with Asymmetric Costs.- Non-Euclidean Traveling Salesman Problem.