David Archer & Ray Pierrehumbert 
The Warming Papers 
The Scientific Foundation for the Climate Change Forecast

Chosen for the 2011 ASLI Choice – Honorable Mention (History Category) for a compendium of the key scientific papers that undergird the global warming forecast.

Global warming is arguably the defining scientific issue of modern times, but it is not widely appreciated that the foundations of our understanding were laid almost two centuries ago with the postulation of a greenhouse effect by Fourier in 1827. The sensitivity of climate to changes in atmospheric CO2 was first estimated about one century ago, and the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration was discovered half a century ago. The fundamentals of the science underlying the forecast for human-induced climate change were being published and debated long before the issue rose to public prominence in the last few decades.

The Warming Papers is a compendium of the classic scientific papers that constitute the foundation of the global warming forecast. The paper trail ranges from Fourier and Arrhenius in the 19th Century to Manabe and Hansen in modern times. Archer and Pierrehumbert provide introductions and commentary which places the papers in their context and provide students with tools to develop and extend their understanding of the subject.

The book captures the excitement and the uncertainty that always exist at the cutting edge of research, and is invaluable reading for students of climate science, scientists, historians of science, and others interested in climate change.

About the author

David Archer is a Professor in Geophysical Sciences, and a
fellow of the American Geophysical Union. His research
pertains to the global carbon cycle and its relation to Earth’s
climate in the past and the future. Archer is the author of
The Long Thaw: How humans are changing the next 100, 000 years of
Earth’s climate (Princeton University Press, 2008), an
undergraduate text book called Global Warming: Understanding the
Forecast (Blackwell, 2006), and a summary guide to the IPCC Fourth
Scientific Assessment Report called The Climate Crisis (Cambridge
University Press, 2009).

Ray Pierrehumbert is the Louis Block Professor in
Geophysical Sciences, a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union,
and was named Chevalier de l’Ordre des Palmes Academiques by the
Republic of France. Pierrehumbert studies the physics of
climate, especially regarding the long-term evolution of the
climates of Earth, Mars.Venus, Titan and extrasolar planets.
Pierrehumbert was an author of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change’s Third Assessment Report (1997-2001), and a member
of the National Research Council’s Panel on Abrupt Climate Change
and its Societal Impacts (2000-2001), and is currently serving on
the National Research Council Board on Atmospheric Science and
Climate, and the National Research Council Panel on CO2
Stabilization Targets.