Mary C. Hill & Claire R. Tiedeman 
Effective Groundwater Model Calibration 
With Analysis of Data, Sensitivities, Predictions, and Uncertainty

Methods and guidelines for developing and using mathematical
models

Turn to Effective Groundwater Model Calibration for a set
of methods and guidelines that can help produce more accurate and
transparent mathematical models. The models can represent
groundwater flow and transport and other natural and engineered
systems. Use this book and its extensive exercises to learn methods
to fully exploit the data on hand, maximize the model’s potential,
and troubleshoot any problems that arise. Use the methods to
perform:

* Sensitivity analysis to evaluate the information content of
data

* Data assessment to identify (a) existing measurements that
dominate model development and predictions and (b) potential
measurements likely to improve the reliability of predictions

* Calibration to develop models that are consistent with the data
in an optimal manner

* Uncertainty evaluation to quantify and communicate errors in
simulated results that are often used to make important societal
decisions

Most of the methods are based on linear and nonlinear regression
theory.

Fourteen guidelines show the reader how to use the methods
advantageously in practical situations.

Exercises focus on a groundwater flow system and management
problem, enabling readers to apply all the methods presented in the
text. The exercises can be completed using the material provided in
the book, or as hands-on computer exercises using instructions and
files available on the text’s accompanying Web site.

Throughout the book, the authors stress the need for valid
statistical concepts and easily understood presentation methods
required to achieve well-tested, transparent models. Most of the
examples and all of the exercises focus on simulating groundwater
systems; other examples come from surface-water hydrology and
geophysics.

The methods and guidelines in the text are broadly applicable
and can be used by students, researchers, and engineers to simulate
many kinds systems.

About the author

MARY C. HILL, Ph D, is Project Chief for the U.S. Geological
Survey (USGS) and a recipient of the USGS Meritorious Service
Award, the ASCE Walter Huber Research Prize, and the NGWA M. King
Hubbert Award. Dr. Hill is President of the International
Commission for Ground Water. She is Adjunct Professor at the
University of Colorado at Boulder and the Colorado School of Mines.

CLAIRE R. TIEDEMAN, MS, is a Research Hydrologist at the
U.S. Geological Survey, where her work involves calibrating and
evaluating models of complex groundwater flow systems, developing
methods to evaluate prediction uncertainty, and characterizing flow
and transport in fractured-rock aquifers. She is a recipient of the
USGS Superior Service Award and an Associate Editor of the journal
Ground Water.