Ellen Hanak & William Fleenor 
Comparing Futures for the Sacramento, San Joaquin Delta 

An ecosystem in freefall, a shrinking water supply for cities and agriculture, an antiquated network of failure-prone levees—this is the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, the major hub of California’s water system. Written by a team of independent water experts, this analysis of the latest data evaluates proposed solutions to the Delta’s myriad problems. Through in-depth economic and ecological analysis, the authors find that the current policy of channeling water exports through the Delta is not sustainable for any interest. Employing a peripheral canal-conveying water around the Delta instead of through it—as part of a larger habitat and water management plan appears to be the best strategy to maintain both a high-quality water supply and at the same time improve conditions for native fish and wildlife. This important assessment includes integrated analysis of long term ecosystem and water management options and demonstrates how issues such as climate change and sustainability will shape the future.


Published in cooperation with the Public Policy Institute of California

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Contributors ix

Preface xi

Acknowledgments xv

Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and Delta Islands Maps xix


1. Introduction 1

What Is the Delta? 3

Why the Delta Matters to Californians 6

The Delta in Crisis 8

Responding to the Crisis 10

Four Central Issues 11

Searching for a Soft Landing 14


2. The Legacies of Delta History 17

Pre-European Delta: Fluctuating Salinity and Lands 17

Reclamation: Foundations of the Modern

Delta Economy 19

Big Water Projects Transform the Delta to a

Freshwater Body 28

Environmental Concerns Change the Course

of Delta Policy Debates 33

The CALFED Era: Testing the Limits

of Consensus 35

New Initiatives and New Troubles in the Delta 38

The Lessons of Delta History 40


3. Managing the Inevitable 43

Introduction 43

Drivers of Change 44

Managing or Resisting Change 49

A Future Different from the Past 56


4. Delta Water Exports and Strategies 57

State and Regional Use of Delta Water Supplies 57

Four Water Export Strategies 61

Exporting Through the Delta 62

Exporting Around the Delta 64

Dual Conveyance 66

Ending Delta Exports 67

Water Exports and the Delta’s Economy 68


5. Hydrodynamics and the Salinity of Delta Waters 69

Modeling Tools and Approach 70

Comparing Scenarios 71

No Exports and Unimpaired Flows 72

Consequences of Sea-Level Rise 76

Consequences of Island Flooding 78

Consequences of Peripheral Canal Exports 82

The Limits of Current Knowledge 88

Conclusions 91


6. What a Changing Delta Means for the Ecosystem

and Its Fishes 93

Basic Premises for Rebuilding the Delta Ecosystem 94

The Role of Habitat Diversity 95

Fish Species Responses to Water Export Strategies 96

Attributes of an Ecosystem Solution 105

Conclusions 108


7. Economics of Changing Water Supply and Quality 111

Statewide Adaptations to Delta Water Management 111

Costs of Providing More Water for

the Environment 115

Urban and Agricultural Water Quality 120

Implications for Export Management Alternatives 123

Costs from Unrepaired Delta Islands 124


8. Policy and Regulatory Challenges 127

Funding Principles for a Soft Landing 128

Softening the Costs of Adjustment 133

Bringing Delta Land Use into the Fold 136

Regulating Water Quality in a Changing Delta 139

Anticipating Levee Failures 142

Including Upstream Diverters in a Delta Solution 143

Protecting Endangered Species in the Face

of Uncertainty 145

Governance Safeguards for a Peripheral Canal 147

Governance and Decision-making for a New Delta 149

Conclusion 150


9. Decision Analysis for Delta Exports 153

Decision Analysis Applied to the Delta

Export Alternatives 153

Information Needed for Decision Analysis 156

Comparing Water Export Alternatives 158

Implementation Issues 162

The Timing of Delta Decisions and Consequences 165

Conclusion 166


10. Charting the Future for a Changing Delta 169

The Changing Delta Landscape 169

Fish and the Delta Ecosystem 171

Long-Term Water Export Alternatives 173

Governance, Regulation, and Finance 175

Navigating Change 177


Appendix: Estimation of Probabilities, Costs,

and Reductions for Delta Outcomes and Strategies 179

Acronyms and Abbreviations 191

Notes 193

Glossary 203

References 207

Index 219

Über den Autor

Jay R. Lund is Professor of Environmental Engineering and Director of the Center for Watershed Sciences. William E. Fleenor is a Research Engineer in the Environmental Dynamics Laboratory. William A. Bennett is a Research Scientist with the John Muir Institute of the Environment. Richard E. Howitt is Professor and Chair of Agricultural and Resource Economics. Jeffrey F. Mount is Professor of Applied Geosciences. Peter B. Moyle is Professor in the Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology. They are all affiliated with the Center for Watershed Sciences, University of California, Davis. Ellen Hanak is Director of Research and Thomas C. Sutton is Chair in Policy Research at the Public Policy Institute of California.