Peter Davis & Roy Lay-Yee 
Simulating Societal Change 
Counterfactual Modelling for Social and Policy Inquiry

This book presents a method for creating a working model of society, using data systems and simulation techniques, that can be used for testing propositions of scientific and policy nature. The model is based on the example of New Zealand, but will be applicable to other countries. It is expected that collaborators in other countries can emulate this example with their data systems for teaching and policy purposes, producing a cross-national ‘collaboratory’. This enterprise will evolve with, and to a degree independently of, the book itself, with a supporting website as well as teaching and scientific initiatives. Readers of this text will, for the first time, have a simulation-based working model of society that can be interrogated for policy and substantive purposes. This book will appeal to researchers and professionals from various disciplines working within the social sciences, particularly on matters of demography and public policy.

Daftar Isi

Chapter1. Introduction.- Chapter2. Conceptual and Analytical Foundations.- Chapter3. Socia Lab. A Dynamic Microsimulation Model.- Chapter4. Tracking Societal Change – Its Major Components.- Chapter5. Data Preparation.- Chapter6. Statistical Analysis.- Chapter7. Simulation.- Chapter8. The “Seven Ages”. A Framework for Social and Policy Issues.- Chapter9. Tracking Societal Change. Descriptive Results.- Chapter10. “What If”? Counterfactual Modelling with Socia Lab.- Chapter11. Conclusion.

Tentang Penulis

Peter Davis is Honorary Professor in the Department of Statistics and Emeritus Professor in Population Health and Social Science, at the University of Auckland. He was founding director of  the COMPASS (Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences) Research Centre and recently completed a two-year James Cook Fellowship funded by the Royal Society of New Zealand. He has also held the position of Senior Editor (Health Policy) at
Social Science and Medicine.




Roy Lay-Yee is Senior Research Fellow at the COMPASS Research Centre, University of Auckland, New Zealand. His research interests include health services utilisation, use of official data, social simulation, ageing, social determinants and inequalities, and social connectedness.