Bill Sharpe & Kees van der Heijden 
Scenarios for Success 
Turning Insights in to Action

Properly researched and intelligently deployed, scenario planning
is today’s most powerful tool for understanding and preparing
for an uncertain future. Yet it remains a niche approach, poorly
understood by leaders at large. To bring it into the strategy
mainstream, leaders need advice on how to turn concepts (scenarios)
into actions (strategy).

Scenarios for Success delivers a unique and coherent
account of the state of the scenario planning art. It is aimed
particularly at those trying to implement its findings. Striking a
balance between theory and practice, the contributors show how and
why the core techniques of scenario thinking have endured and are
still valuable, while bringing new tools and processes that keep
scenario planning in touch with modern realities.

Table of Content

List of Contributors ix

Preface xiii

Acknowledgments xv

Overview xvii

Part I Origins: Navigating with Invisible Islands 1

1 Conversations with Peter Schwartz and Napier Collyns 13
Bill Sharpe

2 Professional Dreamers: The Future in the Past of Scenario Planning 27
Cynthia Selin

Part II Scenarios In the World of Business 53

3 Scenarios and Innovation 75
Jan Verloop

4 Scenarios to Develop Strategic Options: A New Interactive Role for Scenarios in Strategy 89
Rafael Ramírez and Kees Van der Heijden

5 Deepening Futures with System Structure 121
Tony Hodgson and Bill Sharpe

6 From Signals to Decisions 145
Alexander Fink, Philip Hadridge and Gill Ringland

7 When Strangers Meet: Scenarios and the Legal Profession 173
Karim Medjad and Rafael Ramírez

8 The Power of Narrative 197
Lennart Nordfors

Part III Scenarios In the World of Management 217

9 Viewing Futures Network: Collaborative Learning and Innovation at Rabobank 235
Paul de Ruijter

10 Facilitating Scenario Development Process: Some Lessons for Facilitators 259
Ronald Bradfield

11 Appreciating the Future 279
Tony Hodgson

12 Building a Comprehensive Strategic Future Management System: A Future Map Approach 315
Don Heathfield

13 Acting on the Future 339
Andrew Curry

14 Backwards to the Future: Scenarios as Routines for Organizational Health 373
James Tansey

Concluding Remarks 391

References 395

Index 403

About the author

About the editors

Bill Sharpe is an independent researcher in science, technology and society. He was a research director at Hewlett Packard Laboratories where he led research into everyday applications of digital technology. He introduced scenario methods to HP for long-range research and business management, and pioneered the use of scenario methods for supporting business innovation. In 1999 he co-founded an innovation and consulting company, The Appliance Studio, and now specializes in long range technology studies for business strategy and public policy foresight. He has worked extensively for the UK government’s Foresight Programme in areas such as Cognitive Systems, Cybertrust, and Intelligent Infrastructure. With a background in computing and psychology, he is particularly interested in drawing on leading edge research in cognition and systems thinking to find new ways of tackling complex problems. He works independently and as an associate with several leading organizations in the futures field.

Kees van der Heijden is an Associate Fellow of Templeton College, University of Oxford, and a Visiting Professor at the Netherlands Business School, Nijenrode University. He is also Emeritus Professor of the University of Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, Glasgow, where he has taught General and Strategic Management since 1990. In addition, he is a co-founder of the Global Business Network. Before joining Strathclyde, he was in charge of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell, as head of the Group’s Business Environment Division. This involved advising top management on strategy, as well as development of the process of scenario planning in which Shell has taken a worldwide leading role.

He specializes in scenario planning, strategic change and institutional strategic management processes, and has consulted widely in these areas.